Learn the why. Not just the what.
Investing fundamentals, market logic, and the discipline behind good decisions.
Reflexivity: When Prices Change the Reality They Reflect
Usually a price reflects reality. Sometimes the price becomes part of the reality it is supposed to reflect, and the ordinary relationship between the two falls apart.
Risk and Return: Why the Two Cannot Be Separated
Wanting high returns without risk is the most common wish in investing, and the most dangerous. It doesn't just fail to come true. It describes something that cannot exist.
Sector Rotation: Why Different Parts of the Market Take Turns
At any given moment, parts of the market are thriving while others struggle, and leadership passes from one to another in ways that look obvious afterward and invisible beforehand.
The Spread: The Cost You Pay Without Being Told
Commissions are visible, and these days often zero. The spread is invisible and never zero, and across enough trades, it's the bigger cost of the two.
Timeframes and Self-Similarity: Why the Same Patterns Appear at Every Scale
A price chart of a single day and one of a decade can look strikingly alike. That resemblance isn't coincidence, and it has real consequences for how markets should be read.
Volatility Is Not Risk: A Distinction That Changes Everything
Volatility measures how much a price moves. Whether that movement amounts to risk depends on something volatility itself can't tell you: how long you actually plan to hold.
What a Share Price Actually Represents
A price isn't a measurement of what something is worth. It's a record of what one buyer and one seller managed to agree on, in the last moment they agreed on anything.
Who Is on the Other Side of Your Trade
Every purchase needs a seller. Before congratulating yourself on an insight, it's worth asking who took the other side, and why.
Why a Company Can Report Excellent Results and Fall
A company posts record profits and its stock drops. Nothing has gone wrong. The market wasn't reacting to the profits, it was reacting to the gap between the profits and what everyone…
Why Markets Are Hard to Beat: The Competition You Cannot See
When you buy because you think something is cheap, someone else is selling because they think it is dear. The uncomfortable question is what that someone knows that you do not.
The Role of the Federal Reserve in Asset Prices
No single institution exerts more influence over asset prices than the central bank. Understanding how its decisions ripple through markets is essential to understanding why markets move as they do.
What "Market Structure" Actually Means
The phrase "market structure" is used constantly and defined rarely. At its core it describes the pattern of highs and lows that reveals whether a market is trending, ranging, or turning.
Supply and Demand as the Only Real Law
Beneath every indicator, pattern, and theory lies a single irreducible truth: price is set by the balance between those who wish to buy and those who wish to sell. Everything else is commentary on this.
Market Breadth and the Health of a Rally
A rising index can conceal a deteriorating market. Breadth measures how many stocks are actually participating, revealing whether an advance rests on broad strength or a narrow and fragile few.
Risk-On, Risk-Off: The Market's Two Moods
Markets swing between two collective moods: an appetite for risk and a flight from it. Recognising which mood prevails explains why unrelated assets so often move together, against all logic of their fundamentals.
The Bond–Equity Relationship
Stocks and bonds are often treated as separate worlds, but they are two halves of a single conversation about risk, return, and the price of money. Reading them together reveals what neither shows alone.
How Interest Rates Reprice Everything
Interest rates are not merely one factor among many. They are the gravitational constant of finance, the rate against which every asset is valued, and when they move, they reprice the entire financial universe.
Liquidity Is the Tide That Moves All Boats
Beneath the analysis of individual assets runs a deeper force that affects everything at once: the availability of money itself. Liquidity is the tide, and when it rises or falls, it moves all boats together.
Market Cycles: Why the Pattern Repeats
Markets move in cycles of expansion and contraction that repeat across generations. The patterns recur not because history is fixed but because the human nature that drives them never changes.
Sector Rotation and the Flow of Capital
Capital does not sit still. It flows between sectors in response to the economic cycle, and understanding where it tends to move, and why, reveals a logic beneath movements that otherwise seem random.
Dow Theory: The Foundation Beneath Modern Charts
Nearly everything in modern technical analysis traces back, whether its users realize it or not, to a body of ideas assembled more than a hundred years ago under the name Dow Theory…
Elliott Wave Theory Without the Mysticism
Elliott Wave Theory sits in a strange spot in market analysis -- it draws fierce loyalty from its believers and just as fierce dismissal from its critics, often for the same underlying…